St. Ann’s Chamber of Commerce Past President Advisory Committee member Joe Issa has tipped the economic growth momentum experienced in 2016 to continue into 2017.
“This year I expect higher growth in the economy than what we experienced last year when some of the policy measures implemented earlier in the year showed good results towards the end.
“2016 finished on a high note which will reverberate throughout this year to provide the momentum needed for improved performance…it’s what can be called the piggy-back effect…success feeding on success to achieve even greater success,” Issa posits in an interview on the outlook for Jamaica in 2017.
Noting he had seen the latest growth figures Issa says, “I am encouraged by the stats and more so when disaggregated as all sectors seemed to have pulled their weight…it all adds up and tells a story of increased output, consumer confidence and employment…the prime minister has been personally pushing the BPO sector so we may well be seeing the impact in the numbers.”
According to tradingeconomics.com Domestic Product (GDP) figures show that the economy of Jamaica had grown 2 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2016, the highest since the second quarter of 2014. The outturn for the September 2016 quarter was also higher than the 1.4 percent recorded in the second quarter.
The 2016 third quarter statistics also show that both goods and services played a part, which analysts say is the best structure within which to grow the economy.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing which has benefitted from a renewed focus on import substitution and greater linkages with the tourism sector improved from a growth rate of 9.4 percent in the second quarter to 29.1 percent in the third quarter.
Mining and quarrying also responded with the growth of 2 percent in the third quarter from -1.9 percent in the second, while manufacturing was up 0.1 percent from 0.6 percent in the second quarter.
Increases were also said to have been recorded for electricity and water supply which grew by 2.5 percent in the third quarter compared with 5 percent in the second quarter.
Hotels and restaurants grew from 1.3 percent in the second quarter to 2.2 percent in the third. Transport recorded growth of 0.5 percent compared with 0.7 percent in second quarter.
Further comparison shows that the GDP outturn in the September 2016 quarter was much higher than the 0.14 percent average recorded from 2003 to 2016. A record high of 2.2 percent was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2003, and a record low of -2.10 percent was posted in the third quarter of 2014.
Dr Wayne Henry, director general of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), agrees with Issa, not only on the strength of the growth experienced in the third quarter of 2016 but also what it means for the country.
Stating that the pace of growth represented the most reliable estimate since April-June 2007, Dr Henry said at a PIOJ quarterly press briefing that “overall, the projected out-turn largely reflects the positive impact of higher levels of business and consumer confidence and increased employment levels with supported increased demand.”
“This was also reflected in increased construction activities with the building of new, and refurbishment of existing hotel rooms, the build out of office space to facilitate the expansion of the business process outsourcing industry, and road rehabilitation and expansion work,” the Gleaner quoted Dr Henry as saying.